Imminent collapse of Farm and Xcomb

imminent collapse of our XCOMB currency which is approaching value (0), on weekly trading charts it is in a downtrend, very delicate if it is the currency with which LPs are paid as its value decreases day by day eliminating liquidity.
be warned… reitero eliminar esa moneda y cambiar los pagos por HNY.


This is also typical with most new currencies they get dumped.

I think you need to move your blue trend lines as the price line has moved far outside them. The xComb price is not going down in a straight line to 0 but deflating at a slower and slower rate. As I’m sure you know (since it would be pretty silly to buy into something without having done your homework and then complain loudly), half of the fees for every swap on honeyswap are used to buy back and then burn xComb. The lower the price falls, the more will be bought back and burned, and the harder it is for it to keep falling. It will find a level soon enough and then start to grow.


if your theory were true I would have gone up by now, thanks for commenting.

Changing xcomb with HNY is only going to hurt HNY. Also this was expected.


Currently xcomb is inflationary right now and started with massive APY… anything giving 25000% APY is going to dump heavily immediately

I think trying to draw trendline on a chart like that is worthless, there is not enough data… need to wait another 2 months and discard the first 2 weeks of chart data to get any sort of insights


Let’s nip this in the bud right now.

Imminent collapse is NOT what is going to happen to xCOMB.

Actually one can calculate what the expected xCOMB price point should be based on xCOMB inflation and the fee based burn (all calculated in xDAI) as this is the point where burn will match the inflation in $$ or xDAI terms.

Lets use a 24hr Honeyswap fee total of $1K xDAI. Of this .3% basically 1/12 or .025% of this is about 83 xDAI/day that goes to xCOMB buy and burn.

Current inflation is running 1216 xCOMB/day so using the above 83xDAI/day to buy back the anticipated steady state price is expected to be.

83xDAI/1216 xCOMB or .07xDAI per xCOMB

Now we can also look at the Honeyswap xCOMB-xDAI LP. This currently has 40k xCOMB worth about 200K xDAI giving a current xCOMB price of about $5 xDAI

One can calculate the decay curve based on all the xCOMB farmed basically being sold for xDAI and using this 1216 xCOMB/day inflation which gives about 3%/day supply (or about 6% price chane if all is converted to xDAI and LP doesn’t enter or leave) - the rest of the decay coming from airdrop being sold. The price decay looks to match inflation at basically about 6%/day give or take depending on who withdraws or adds to LP on any given day…

I have this price decay curve at 6% expected to match the burn price with a daily fee rate at 1k/day in about 50-60 days (estimated based on current volume trends).

IF LP holds up during this process (unlikely) we will have something north of 200k xCOMB and something south of 40K xDAI in the xCOMB-xDAI LP provided liquidity isn’t removed otherwise this gets worse, gets better if liquidity is added.

So if collapse means a 6% daily price decay from now $5/xCOMB down to say .05 then yeah over the next 60 days the xCOMB price is going to collapse to .05. But this isn’t going to happen over night it is going to take some time. Also if one looks at returns here and LP valuations. It looks like LP value of xCOMB-xDAI will drop by 90%. Without spending any more time doing the math formally than the 30minutes to write this post I expect that returns on everything except the xCOMB-xDAI pair are going to drop by the same 98-99% (because the LP price will mostly stay the same or drop by factor of 2 on everything except the xCOMB). The xCOMB-xDAI return will only drop by about 90% because the value of the LP will drop 90% while the xCOMB returns (provided no changes to ratios) will drop by 98-99%.

Basically in 60 days if my rough math is correct and Honeyswap fees don’t increase beyond 1K DAI/day (or 1000/12) the value of $1000 xCOMB-xDAI LP is going to be $100 and will be earning something like 25% APY vs. the current 250%. Everything else will have returns down by 98-99%. So if you are earning now 25% on a LP in 2 months this will be .25-.5% APY from farming.

Which I was trying to point out in my Honeycomb report below.

Targeting this 30% APY by adjusting not just the ‘ratios’ but the rate of emission is absolutely critical to managing these returns so we stop crushing people in these LP farming deals and extend the decay curves. In the loosest sense liquidity is basically going to go away, the issue becomes how much, how fast.

I have repeatedly tried to inform 1Hive regarding their approach to these farms leads to a kind of pump and then dump which puts uninformed people in the cross hairs of losing their funds. Locking into the farms to get the 2x returns basically isn’t worth it. The only way anyone makes money off these COMB tokens is basically to get in on the airdrop and DO NOT lock your LP and look to sell right when the COMB price starts to roll over.

My solution to this would have been to adjust the inflation curve so that we would slowly ramp up farming returns (i.e. COMB inflation) and adjusting ratios so that the returns on the chosen farms basically did not offer a return much over 30%, or for the LP staking returns to chosen APY values. (I arbitrarily chose 30% because I think it is on the high end of sustainable - 10-15% probably would be much better and much more sustainable in the long run).

Unfortunately 1Hive developers/governance is both unable and unwilling to provide the appropriate issuance management machinery so the price decay curves can be managed via emission management so the COMB price rise and decay can be appropriately managed to reduce the pump, and the inevitable decay dump in the farming.

Honeyswap on Matic is probably going to experience something similar unless the emission can be actively managed as well as the ‘ratios’.

To be fair here the numbers above change IF one uses a different Honeyswap avg daily fee return. xCOMB.

  • 10k/day xCOMB normalized to burn puts the value at ~.5xDAI/xCOMB,
  • 100K/day 5xDAI/xCOMB.
    with Honeyswap volumes in the 3M, and 30M ranges potentially achievable on Honeyswap or particularly Polygon so there may be more hope for a better price of pCOMB than xCOMB due to higher potential Honeyswap volume on Polygon.

Also realize assuming Honeyswap continues to make money into the future eventually the burn to emission value will converge. Anticipating this point will also have a speculative component. At that point provided Honeyswap fees are stable or looking to rise the COMB price will begin to rise. Unfortunately the xCOMB price on xDAI-Honeyswap may have to drop a lot before that happens.

Something else that might help here is taking part of these volume rewards and targeting traders that also provide LP. But the end analysis is the same.

Put simply in my final analysis the LP providers are ALREDY getting the .25% in the fees on volume as some APY call it N on their LP, exactly how does sloshing the remaining .025% (or .05% if you want to offer all of the 1Hive fees here) of the .3% available supposed to give a user a sustainable 2N, or 3N LP return via staking?


in short, we are right

Most new currencies with no use, to be clear.

The use is that it earns revenue from honeyswap fees.

imminent collapse


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Xcomb needs more utility imo. I’m sure it won’t be left behind!