Thoughts on the Honey price

[anisoptera]

I actually think the price retracing could be good long-term. We acquired a lot of new members over the last couple weeks. There’s a lot of buzz (get it) around us, a lot of new people with new ideas about how things should be done, opinions about the things that already are done, and so on. The community is showing a lot of stress and friction right now.

As long as the price was still on an upward trajectory, more people were going to keep showing up. People that would try to game systems that weren’t set up to handle large numbers of people intentionally gaming them. People that would have even more wildly different ideas about what 1hive is. The community would be in danger of having its culture diluted too much too quickly, and it might never find its way together again.

With the price dipping now, that inward pressure is alleviated somewhat. We have time for things to shake out, to consolidate. Some people who just came for the farming might leave, or those just looking for a quick bag pump. Those who stay help form a new culture, recognizable as derived from the old, but stronger, more diverse, yet still cohesive, resilient. It’s a natural process that requires time and effort from everyone involved, but it can’t happen while more dilution is still being poured in.

After that process, the culture is ready for dilution again. If you pour that same amount of people into the community again, it won’t be nearly as disruptive the next time; there is just more culture now, it’s even more cohesive. The new members would assimilate much more rapidly this time, because there is just more community for them to dissolve into.

I think I went through four or five different metaphors there, but I hope it’s understandable regardless.

[overt]

Remind me sucked into Coin2 years ago becoming a whale then it collapsed with hacked and creator walk away. Lost a few BTC in it.

[sommi]

1Hive is building a community and has a strong foundation.

We are fully behind the development team.

Bitcoin will lead the way and bring on new people into the crypto community. 1hive has a VERY strong meme and discord!

[Jestrab007]

Hi,
as i’m quite new here, thank you for this deep insight.

1/ My point of view is that the price of HNY fully corresponds to the fact, that, at these days, money moves into 1. BTC, 2. ETH and 3. ALTs. I don’t espect HNY to follow FOMO quickly, as it is on the side chain and unfortunatelly still not on coinmarketcap/coingecko (huge disadvantage dicreasing credibility!). So HNY is 4. in this “FOMO” order.

2/ The project and community setup is great. However, if it has not any usecase for wide range of people globally (eg. Honeyswap), if remains a nice fanclub activity.
At this point, i see, Honeyswap has a nice strong momentum now (no fees+instant trxs), but it could loose it soon when Eth 2.0 is succesfully released.
This could be another important reason for the HNY price going down.

Maybe, i’m not well educated about this project only and it could only take a (maybe long) time 1hive to shine. But i worry about it and i need to point this.

[Blazar]

Just some thoughts I had on the Honey price as it was interesting to compare it to the UNI token on uniswap. We all know that uniswap has much more liquidity, but what about if we just compare the liquidity on the honey token vs. uni token.

So UNI has about $22,700,000 in liquidity on Uniswap (although it is also important to consider that uniswap is also traded on other exchanges, whereas honey does not). Honey on the other hand has $1,500,000 in liquidity. This means that the uni has about a 15x factor of liquidity compared to honey.

So how does that relate to price? Well Honey has a marketcap currently (including common pool) of $11,000,000. If we multiply the liquidity factor (to make UNI/Honey on equal liquidity) by the price then we get a total of $165,000,000. That means the total market cap for honey would be 165M if we had the same liquidity when compared to uniswap.

The UNI token currently has a mcap of ~540M. That means its larger than Honey by a factor of ~3.27 even when the liquidity matches. So based on this analysis, Honey could be undervalued by a factor of 3.27 meaning that the fair value of honey is ~$1440 based on a $440 current honey price.

Just some thoughts to consider

[s_ben]

@Jestrab007

unfortunatelly still not on coinmarketcap/coingecko (huge disadvantage dicreasing credibility!)

https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/honey

@Jestrab007

2/ The project and community setup is great. However, if it has not any usecase for wide range of people globally (eg. Honeyswap), if remains a nice fanclub activity.

While many might not be aware, and competition may be on the way, I’d say the use case of being able to trade Ethereum-based tokens with nearly free, instant transactions is a proven use case. Basically, it’s the number of people that have been priced out of Uniswap due to high fees, which is a large number of people. Plus a bunch of applications that have been priced out of Ethereum mainnet potentially.

@Jestrab007

Maybe, i’m not well educated about this project only and it could only take a (maybe long) time 1hive to shine. But i worry about it and i need to point this.

This seems like an intelligent comment from a newcomer:) There’s a lot of learning curves to really understand it well (xDAI, conviction voting, Aragon DAOs, Aragon court, SourceCred, and much more). The plan is to also expand into many new use cases.

[Jestrab007]

Sorry, i missed that Coingecko registration…

@s_ben

While many might not be aware, and competition may be on the way, I’d say the use case of being able to trade Ethereum-based tokens with nearly free, instant transactions is a proven use case. Basically, it’s the number of people that have been priced out of Uniswap due to high fees, which is a large number of people. Plus a bunch of applications that have been priced out of Ethereum mainnet potentially.

That’s just it. This applies now, but could not be valid soon. Ethereum is useless for daily trxs, xDai is cool. I’m here just for this reason. However i’m aware that it remains mostly disadvantages like bridging when Ethereum upgrades to simillar conditions which xDai has now.

@s_ben

This seems like an intelligent comment from a newcomer:) There’s a lot of learning curves to really understand it well (xDAI, conviction voting, Aragon DAOs, Aragon court, SourceCred, and much more). The plan is to also expand into many new use cases.

The mentioned infrastructure technologies seem to be great, i like it, no doubt. These are lets say framework. The second part should be the content - usecases.
Could you be so kind to discover these plans? Either direct me to some topic where it is being discussed?
Best reply it here please:
https://forum.1hive.org/t/will-eth2-make-honeyswap-redundant/1355/6
as i’m not the only one who thinks about the future

[s_ben]

@Jestrab007

The mentioned infrastructure technologies seem to be great, i like it, no doubt. These are lets say framework. The second part should be the content - usecases.
Could you be so kind to discover these plans? Either direct me to some topic where it is being discussed?

I’ll just answer here, as I don’t really know much about Honeyswap/Uniswap, or have a valuation framework that could price honey (nor do I trust anyone that does). I’m here because this is the most exciting decentralized governance tech stack I’ve seen, the community is promising, and use cases are only limited by imagination and budget (which is quite large atm). I think SourceCred is a breakthrough (though that’s my main community so talkin’ my book ), conviction voting could be too, and Celeste (Aragon Court) just might finally break through on the dispute resolution problem. Perhaps the Celeste excitement is hopium, as I view that as the missing piece for so many promising blockchain visions. But if 1Hive can resolve disputes in DAOs in an efficient, credibly neutral way, that could solve a problem even Facebook and Twitter can’t. Already, I’m seeing organic demand pile up just in disputes around gaming SourceCred (an infinite well). There’s money in people beefing over money . But I digress.

Part of this is just the birth of wild, entirely new cybernetic organisms, a vision @lkngtn articulated the other day.

Together we thrive

1hive is a decentralized autonomous organization, but that doesn’t really mean very much to very many people, and even for people that are familiar with DAOs, the term has been used in so many different context that it has lost much of its meaning. The following is one attempt to characterize what 1hive is, perhaps other will have different perspectives… 1hive is a cybernetic superorganism, conviction voting is its brain, honey is its lifeblood, celeste is its spirit, and we are all its cells…

Even if honey doesn’t find its value–and I agree the answer, ‘the hive will just make it valuable’ is a bit vague for me–I think we’re witnessing the birth of what replaces the firm. That’s a good show, one you have to participate in to experience, and participating is going to require some HNY.

[Jestrab007]

Thank you for this insight. This is important. It is the “content” i asked for. I came because of Honeyswap and i can see it is a secondary product only and the core is different. This should be written on any home page of 1hive. I cannot understand it thoroughly, but it makes sense for me now.

Thank you.

[Kryptobi]

Thanks for sharing this.
I think the powerful thing about HNY is that it’s growth has been 100% organic and it continues to grow. what that means is that more and more people are holding and using HNY. Think about it, the reason you are here is because 1Hive is succeeding otherwise you’d probably not have noticed it. Everyday new people arrive, this can only mean we are doing something right. It is still early days and thus might seem like a fan club to you now but never underestimate the power of a true DAO.
You might be right that HNY needs more use case. But then what is the use case of BTC? I think you have to understand what is being created here. All the same i completely agree we have to create more use cases for HNY.

[Jestrab007]

1/ If the purpose is to build and proove decentralized community system, then it is really much more fundamental and stronger value for me, than just any better swap utility with low fees. I cannot evaluate this fully until i discover the project deeply, therefore i hope at the moment it is not any utopia.

2/ Don’t agree with this:

@Kryptobi

the reason you are here is because 1Hive is succeeding otherwise you’d probably not have noticed it. Everyday new people arrive, this can only mean we are doing something right

I would like to clarify.
The core idea is not being promoted and communicated well outside of 1hive first of all and it is quite hidden, unfortunately. To be honest, I did not come for the core idea of the cool 1hive project at the beginning. I simply come for Honeyswap and cheap trxs on xDai. And the HNY faucet and farming are another reasons for sure. I guess most people did the same…

Therefore, many new comers don’t inidicate any success of 1hive project. They can leave as quickly as they come when Honeyswap ends or HNY goes down. However, not bad, when they came even for initially another reason and they are here. Because Proof of the success are those who remains excited by the 1hive.

[s_ben]

@Jestrab007

Therefore, many new comers don’t inidicate any success of 1hive project. They can leave as quickly as they come when Honeyswap ends or HNY goes down. However, not bad, when they came even for initially another reason and they are here. Because Proof of the success are those who remains excited by the 1hive.

This. Most came for the faucet (free money). Many for farming. It’s been interesting to watch the action die down recently, and some new regular contributors emerge. I think it’s too early to call 1Hive a long-term success though, or even calculate the “conversion rate” with any accuracy. The average life cycle of a new food-based DeFi coin is ~2-3 months. A large percentage currently here will just move onto the next ponzi that emerges, many have already. The percentage that sticks around and continues to create value looks good, but that is still shaking out.

[Jestrab007]

@s_ben

I think it’s too early to call 1Hive a long-term success though, or even calculate the “conversion rate” with any accuracy. The average life cycle of a new food-based DeFi coin is ~2-3 months.

I agree. The good point is, that although we cannot say 1Hive will have long-term success, it focuses on that. This is good baseline and the future shows us the result.

[thebeesknees]

I heard about this project and how it was on the xDai chain and it is my first time being apart of a community like this. I am going to be learning to develop and be of some use soon while I learn how to best contribute. This stuff is all so amazing I can’t wait to contribute on something while I stack up my Honey.

[Kryptobi]

Yeah, 1Hive’s purpose is to build a true DAO where algorithms run the show and humans are at the edge.
Ahh… so you came because of the cheap & fast honeyswap trxns, plus faucet, plus farming? Thats exactly what brought me here too(honeyswap). But guess what? they are all 1Hive products and now look where we both are, lolz. and i know its same for many others too, so 1Hive must be doing something right, they are suceeding thats why we both discovered it and are both here.
I agree the message might not be cutting across clearly, but the important thing is we are attracting people and converting some of them.
As i said earlier, its still early days and there are still lots of similar products that will come up and even bring more traffic. while the already existing products keeps getting more and more attention.

[motealle]

I think so, that we need more use cases. and please take a look at my latest post about one of them…
But what are the boundaries for proposals? what are the core values? can we also suggest new values?

[motealle]

Do the importance of liquidity is that:
its more safe for the price if a user wants to change for example: HNY for xDai etc…
and how much it affects the price, immediately after the trade?
And is the pricing exactly about the computation of amounts between coin pairs?

[project_uwb]

@lkngtn mate… just stumbling on some of these old gems hidden here in the forum… this was a great read. I must have stumbled on 1Hive and xDAI about 6 months ago… and I really wish I had given this forum a chance back then. Just looking around the kind of information that was being published and the passion of some of the early adopters gives me hope that I could some day in about 10 years claim to have been here at almost the start !! Would be really great if you could do an update to this may be 6 months from now! Would be nice to see how your views have held through a time frame of a year and all the changes that you may have witnessed within this dynamic DAO!

[Manukabees]

the matic xdai bridge is bringing more exposure…once donuts tipping take off even more eyes on xdai… with more project launching its still EARLY as 1hive will grow… still LOTS of room for growth…

[webbiger]

Is there a place where addresses are linked to community members? I’d be curious to see who are the whales and how much they own