Thoughts on the Honey price

Honey whale… but before going any further, I just want to say that this is my opinion, it’s not trading or financial advice, make your own judgements, make your own model. I’m obviously biased, not just because I’m a whale, but also because I have invested time and energy into 1hive for years and I’m excited and passionate about its future. I’m planning to be here working regardless of what happens with price, but there isn’t a core team, there was no ICO, and nobody has any obligation to continue contributing 1hive.

The Honey chart is not very fun to look at right now.

People in the community are understandably unneasy, people are ascribing all sort of reasons to price movements from technical analysis, too much honey in farms, too little honey in farms, honey in the wrong farms, geo-political macro trends, correlation or (inverse-correlation) to other factors like BTC or Ethereum gas fees, and let’s not forget the ever popular theory that the “devs” are evil and out to get you.

The reality is that on a short time horizon, trying to predict cryptocurrency price movements is closer to gambling than to investment. It’s fine to gamble, but keep in mind thats what it is.

If you want to trade a crypto asset like Honey over a longer term time horizon, it’s important to think about lots of factors, create a thesis and a model of where the asset is in terms of adoption, what its potential value might end up being in the future, and how likely it is to get there. You can use that model to determine what the value of the asset is to you, and how it fits into your overall financial portfolio, and then act accordingly. If your model says the current price is too high sell, if too low buy.

It is early

Being in the 1hive community right now, is like being in bitcoin in 2011.

Honey has existed for some time, if you’ve joined the community in the last 8 weeks you have joined at the same time as thousands of other people. We went from ~100 token holders to over 10000, the price of honey rose from ~50 dollars to a peak of ~1400 dollars. It’s now at the time of writing this at ~480. I can’t tell you what the price will be tomorrow, or next week, but can tell you that its highly unlikely to be straight up or straight down, because it never is. This rapid growth comes with lots of challenges, social, political, financial.

Most responsible people that experience a 28x increase in value for something they hold, are probably looking to rebalance their portfolio to some degree, even if they still believe strongly in the growth potential of the asset. The entire supply of honey was circulating among contributors, before the influx, tons of people are in that position. That means there is a ton of sell pressure. There is also a ton of new people joining the community that see a ton of growth potential for 1hive and honey. Massive growth spikes, create these imbalances between existing holders and new entrants, and it takes time for the market to stabilize.

Here is an example of a similar event in bitcoins historical charts. From April to June bitcoin rose ~30x in 2011, followed by a dramatic drop before stabilizing and starting increase again.

If you zoom out, this market cycle doesn’t even register.

Weak hands

Of course, maybe Honey isn’t the next bitcoin, maybe we peaked, maybe we won’t ever see another all time high.

I hope everyone who feels that way, goes to honeyswap right now and sells all their honey. If thats you and your right, the sooner that you exit the better off you’ll be, and while I disagree, I’d much rather have you put that Honey in the hands of someone who has a bit more vision, a bit more conviction, and is ready to strap in for an epic roller coaster ride.

I’m far more bullish on a community where every weak hand in the bunch has been shaken out (regardless of the price) and everyone still holding is aligned around a vision of shared value creation that far exceeds the current value, than one where the market value is high but everyone in the community feels like the price is “soft” and not sure if they should hold or sell. So if you’re nervous, if you’re unsure, if you’re on the fence go sell, please.

A thesis

My thesis on crypto currencies is that their value is driven primarily by communities and not by technologies.

Technology may seem important, but what really matters is the community that forms around it, the meme, the idea, the history, the culture. Bitcoin isn’t valuable because its codebase is the best, most secure, most scalable solution on the market. It’s valuable because of its origin story, its distribution, its history, and the “hard money” meme.

The actual technology is basically antiquated at this point, it doesn’t scale well, (on layer one or native layer 2), its got an economic policy that is likely unsustainable to secure its base layer (transaction fees may never be enough to cover miner costs as the block reward decreases over time), its being bridged to ethereum where it may never need to be bridged back for settlement (exacerbating the problem). At some point either the supply policy will need to change to increase security, or the notion that the bitcoin ledger even needs to exist when you can just migrate the balances to Ethereum and use that as a settlement layer (while keeping the hard money meme) will be an interesting challenge for the Bitcoin community in the future. but I’m still bullish on Bitcoin.

The point here is that Bitcoin isn’t valuable because of its technology, its valuable because of its community. People know bitcoin as the first of its kind, it has an amazing origin story, its innovative, it formed a grass roots community over years.

Bitcoin meetups have been happening all across the globe for over a decade and across all sorts of online forums, people share ideas, they propagate culture, and they reinforce the idea that bitcoin is sound money, that it’s digital gold, that it will change the world and make it better. Individuals in the bitcoin community contribute not just because they are bitcoin whales, but because they share a common vision. They are missionaries, not mercenaries. They’ve built exchanges, and companies, and open source code on the edges of the Bitcoin network.

We are trying to create that culture in 1hive, and I’ve already seen in forming. It’s inspiring and amazing and I’m excited for the future of this community.

Honey is money, like Bitcoin is money. But honey isn’t just a copy pasta of the Bitcoin code base like so many before it, like Ethereum it’s taking some of the concepts and innovating.

What if instead of only incentivizing miners through issuance and block reward, we had a more general protocol where issuance could be distributed for a broad range of contributions?

It’s a known and well acknowledged problem that both Bitcoin and Ethereum suffer, (see vitaliks post on credible neutrality as one example), that to achieve social scalability we need governance minimization and credible neutral mechanism for incentivizing contribution… but most of these mechanisms have so far been highly specialized and only able to incentivize a small subset of the behaviors that matter most. Proof of Work and Proof of Stake incentivize block producers, but fail to incentivize application layer builders, base layer developers, community educators, marketers, or provide a means to onboard the next million users to the ecosystem. Conviction Voting allows the community to incentivizes arbitrary contributions while keeping automation at the center and humans at the edges.

What we are doing with conviction voting at 1hive is a game changer. Honey will become better money than Bitcoin because it doesn’t just create a “store of value”, but is designed to recirculate that value within an economy, and continuously reinvest in itself across a broad range of contributions (development, marketing, support, engineering, whatever is needed most). It’s like the difference between narrow AI and AGI. 1hive is decentralized like Bitcoin or Ethereum, but also has the flexibility to adapt and evolve encoded directly in the protocol.

Many people associate 1hive and honey with just honeyswap, they see it as a fast fork on a side chain… it was a hackathon project that took off organically. We are so much more than just a dex on xdai. We are a community of builders, and honeyswap just happened to be something we needed to build on xdai to make it more useful. We will keep building and growing the Honey economy, Honeyswap is just one chapter in a novel that we are all writing together.

We are all 1hive

Many people have joined the 1hive community over the past months.

Many of them came into it with every intention of getting honey from the faucet and immediately dumping, but many have said that as they dug deeper into the community, they went down the rabbit hole, and found something that was more interesting, more compelling, and truly in the spirit of decentralization. Many have said that the energy of community has made them want to stick around and get excited about crypto all over again. Others have mentioned that 1hive is their very first experience with crypto, they are coming from outside the bubble and getting sucked into the hive. I can’t think of anything more bullish than that.

Everyone one of these people is a part of 1hive, they can influence the direction and the success of the community through their actions. This might be the simple act of sharing their experience and excitement with a friend, or it could be getting involved in a swarm, submitting a proposal, and directly influencing the direction of resources within the community.

When people show up and say that they need the “devs” to step up, they don’t get that there is no core team, there is only the community. With true decentralization you have the power to shape the community and help it succeed, but you also can’t expect a core team to put up with your bullshit or act like your employee just cause you happen to hold honey… there isn’t a core team, nobody took your money in an ICO, and nobody has the obligation to do anything for you.

If you want something to change you can step up, build support, and make it happen. The recent proposal to top up the faucet passed with just 191 honey, less than 1% of the total supply of honey.

You also don’t need permission to submit a PR, or to compose a tweet storm, or add a suggestion to improve the community to the forum, you can just do it. The honeyswap twitter account was started by a community member, and is close to having more followers than the 1hiveorg twitter account that I run.

:honeybee: :honeybee: :honeybee: :honeybee:

P.S. the :sun_with_face: is on the horizon

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Good read :100:, I like this “Everyone one of these people is a part of 1hive, they can influence the direction and the success of the community through their actions. This might be the simple act of sharing their experience and excitement with a friend, or it could be getting involved in a swarm, submitting a proposal, and directly influencing the direction of resources within the community.” :clap: :clap: :clap:

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Lol all that passive aggressive behavior towards people unsure about price and telling them to sell.
You can be unsure of price of honey because tokenomics are not correct at this moment when creators hold 80% of the supply and still be in the community and wait for better price to get in.
Everyone ofcourse will praise your post because like your advocating everyone here only says yes when moon and this wil 100x instead of looking at everything a bit more realistic.
It’s pretty obvious that there was an invisible wall of selling everytime we hit 1200$ so no im not going to blindly buy and hodle so some devs with large amount can keep selling at 1200$ but im also not going to leave im just going to wait for a correct price to go back in.

Even if there was no ico or whatever you could have sold like 10k HNY at fixed price of 50$ or distribute with farming but now that creators hold 80% its easy to attack “weak hands” and tell them to hodl or sell.

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Great post man, appreciate you taking the time to write out your thoughts and visions. Blessed be the hive

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Great write-up. But you know humans, many will still not get it, so just get ready to write another one each time there is huge price volatility such like what we are presently witnessing :sweat_smile:

regarding @linca response I hope you now understand what i mean in the other post where i said this issue will keep rearing up its ugly head as we continue to grow. I can only hope it does not stunt the growth of this wonderful creation. I believe in 1Hive!!!

Excellent read with my morning coffee!

As you said, any project will have ups and downs, but as the community will grows the market should stabilize. Let’s not forget that the project is at the beginning of the road…

I am new to crypto world, but i like what I found here. I know that most of the people want to make a profit and that’s fair enough.
For me, this community has helped me gain a huge amount of knowledge and that’s priceless.

Thank you all for your efforts to make 1Hive work! :honeybee:

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I kinda got triggered reading this post that a whale was saying that if you sell you got weak hand and dont believe in the project while at the same time other whales were selling.

But i had a good conversation with luigy and basicly my thoughts are that i believe in 1hive and the future of the project but at the same time i think with current tokenomics it will take a while for HNY to find its price so i’ll wait until then to reinvest and that might be at a lower price or higher price.

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Loving this post by you @lkngtn! This was thrilling read from start to finish and I TOTALLY standby you with all of it!

Especially this > If you want something to change you can step up, build support, and make it happen.!

Beers on me when the celebratory twitter flippening !

This isn’t really the point I’m trying to make, sorry if it triggered you.

I want to encourage people to create a model, and then act on that model. I do not want to encourage people to just say yes to everything, and I don’t want to shame anyone for selling if they feel that according to their model honey is over valued. What I’m trying to get at is that the act of exchange is what makes markets work, every seller has a buyer and in general when someone sells they are selling to someone who has deemed that the exchange is a good deal because they value what they are getting more than the person who is selling values what they are giving up. If you have a long term outlook and you see a value in the future that is higher than where the price is bouncing around now, the more people selling and the quicker they sell, the faster tokens are moving into the hands of people who likely share that long term vision and outlook.

As I said in the post, we have had a ton of new people and capital join the community in a short period of time, and the entire supply was circulating before that influx… There is naturally a lot of sell pressure because of a 28x increase, and there has been resistance in the 1200 range. I have no way to tell how big that resistance is or where the price will stabilize as new people are buying, existing holders are selling, you have people who came in to ride a wave and are now leaving, you have people that discovered the project as part of that wave that are trying to accumulate and are in for the long run. Its fine if your model tells you to sell and wait for things to settle before buying back in, go for it, there is no shame in taking those sorts of risks.

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Ok i get ya, its all good and sorry if i overreacted. In the end we all want 1hive to succeed and grow.

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Great post as always, @lkngtn

The current annual issuance/inflation really isn’t that much when you consider it would take 25 years for us to even reach just 1,000,000 total HNY with 60% yearly inflation. By then, if you’re smart, you’d have already been a crazily early adopter with a large amount of cheaply accumulated (or even cred-earned) HNY. Just like the older community members who came before us, you too will be looked at as a “whale” who got here earlier than those who come after us.

It is widely agreed that this ecosystem is in dire need of a well-devised, community-audited, structured, specific, and highly curated outline of future token issuance and supply, and this discussion should certainly remain open for the foreseeable future until it is very clear what we need to do about the tokenomics. However, as a community I think we all need to wait until the market settles a bit before we make hasty decisions and negatively phrased public statements in the midst of an abrupt 70% price decrease. Eyes are on us right now and I feel as a community we are fanning the FUD flame.

Let’s dull the noise a bit and stop throwing fingers at reasons for the price dropping. Remember, this is a public forum and because of the nature of this DAO others who are lurking may interpret your claims as fact because they are too unknowledgeable of the dynamics of this community to understand that there is no “team” making the decisions alone. It’s all of us.

Bottom line is, HNY is available on a single exchange with relatively low overall volume. When the main market is moving and people FOMO, funds will redistribute from exchanges like Honeyswap to other exchanges, and with it the price of HNY will fall. It’s happened before and it just happened again and we’re still here with 3.6 M in staked liquidity. You should all be interpreting the aftermath of this dump as a huge success overall, as we have identified a strong added level of support built on top of the 2 M liquidity support we saw hold strong for a month. We can thank the 3 active farming pools for the 1.6 M increase in baseline liquidity and this only indicates we need to open more farming pools.

Anyway, I digress. Just chill all. This too shall pass.

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I actually think the price retracing could be good long-term. We acquired a lot of new members over the last couple weeks. There’s a lot of buzz (get it) around us, a lot of new people with new ideas about how things should be done, opinions about the things that already are done, and so on. The community is showing a lot of stress and friction right now.

As long as the price was still on an upward trajectory, more people were going to keep showing up. People that would try to game systems that weren’t set up to handle large numbers of people intentionally gaming them. People that would have even more wildly different ideas about what 1hive is. The community would be in danger of having its culture diluted too much too quickly, and it might never find its way together again.

With the price dipping now, that inward pressure is alleviated somewhat. We have time for things to shake out, to consolidate. Some people who just came for the farming might leave, or those just looking for a quick bag pump. Those who stay help form a new culture, recognizable as derived from the old, but stronger, more diverse, yet still cohesive, resilient. It’s a natural process that requires time and effort from everyone involved, but it can’t happen while more dilution is still being poured in.

After that process, the culture is ready for dilution again. If you pour that same amount of people into the community again, it won’t be nearly as disruptive the next time; there is just more culture now, it’s even more cohesive. The new members would assimilate much more rapidly this time, because there is just more community for them to dissolve into.

I think I went through four or five different metaphors there, but I hope it’s understandable regardless. :slight_smile:

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Remind me sucked into Coin2 years ago becoming a whale then it collapsed with hacked and creator walk away. Lost a few BTC in it.

:orange_heart::yellow_heart::green_heart::blue_heart:
1Hive is building a community and has a strong foundation.

We are fully behind the development team.

:honeybee: Bitcoin will lead the way and bring on new people into the crypto community. 1hive has a VERY strong meme and discord!

Hi,
as i’m quite new here, thank you for this deep insight.

1/ My point of view is that the price of HNY fully corresponds to the fact, that, at these days, money moves into 1. BTC, 2. ETH and 3. ALTs. I don’t espect HNY to follow FOMO quickly, as it is on the side chain and unfortunatelly still not on coinmarketcap/coingecko (huge disadvantage dicreasing credibility!). So HNY is 4. in this “FOMO” order.

2/ The project and community setup is great. However, if it has not any usecase for wide range of people globally (eg. Honeyswap), if remains a nice fanclub activity.
At this point, i see, Honeyswap has a nice strong momentum now (no fees+instant trxs), but it could loose it soon when Eth 2.0 is succesfully released.
This could be another important reason for the HNY price going down.

Maybe, i’m not well educated about this project only and it could only take a (maybe long) time 1hive to shine. But i worry about it and i need to point this.

Just some thoughts I had on the Honey price as it was interesting to compare it to the UNI token on uniswap. We all know that uniswap has much more liquidity, but what about if we just compare the liquidity on the honey token vs. uni token.

So UNI has about $22,700,000 in liquidity on Uniswap (although it is also important to consider that uniswap is also traded on other exchanges, whereas honey does not). Honey on the other hand has $1,500,000 in liquidity. This means that the uni has about a 15x factor of liquidity compared to honey.

So how does that relate to price? Well Honey has a marketcap currently (including common pool) of $11,000,000. If we multiply the liquidity factor (to make UNI/Honey on equal liquidity) by the price then we get a total of $165,000,000. That means the total market cap for honey would be 165M if we had the same liquidity when compared to uniswap.

The UNI token currently has a mcap of ~540M. That means its larger than Honey by a factor of ~3.27 even when the liquidity matches. So based on this analysis, Honey could be undervalued by a factor of 3.27 meaning that the fair value of honey is ~$1440 based on a $440 current honey price.

Just some thoughts to consider :slight_smile:

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https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/honey

While many might not be aware, and competition may be on the way, I’d say the use case of being able to trade Ethereum-based tokens with nearly free, instant transactions is a proven use case. Basically, it’s the number of people that have been priced out of Uniswap due to high fees, which is a large number of people. Plus a bunch of applications that have been priced out of Ethereum mainnet potentially.

This seems like an intelligent comment from a newcomer:) There’s a lot of learning curves to really understand it well (xDAI, conviction voting, Aragon DAOs, Aragon court, SourceCred, and much more). The plan is to also expand into many new use cases.

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Sorry, i missed that Coingecko registration…

That’s just it. This applies now, but could not be valid soon. Ethereum is useless for daily trxs, xDai is cool. I’m here just for this reason. However i’m aware that it remains mostly disadvantages like bridging when Ethereum upgrades to simillar conditions which xDai has now.

The mentioned infrastructure technologies seem to be great, i like it, no doubt. These are lets say framework. The second part should be the content - usecases.
Could you be so kind to discover these plans? Either direct me to some topic where it is being discussed?
Best reply it here please:
https://forum.1hive.org/t/will-eth2-make-honeyswap-redundant/1355/6
as i’m not the only one who thinks about the future :slight_smile:

I’ll just answer here, as I don’t really know much about Honeyswap/Uniswap, or have a valuation framework that could price honey (nor do I trust anyone that does). I’m here because this is the most exciting decentralized governance tech stack I’ve seen, the community is promising, and use cases are only limited by imagination and budget (which is quite large atm). I think SourceCred is a breakthrough (though that’s my main community so talkin’ my book :sweat:), conviction voting could be too, and Celeste (Aragon Court) just might finally break through on the dispute resolution problem. Perhaps the Celeste excitement is hopium, as I view that as the missing piece for so many promising blockchain visions. But if 1Hive can resolve disputes in DAOs in an efficient, credibly neutral way, that could solve a problem even Facebook and Twitter can’t. Already, I’m seeing organic demand pile up just in disputes around gaming SourceCred (an infinite well). There’s money in people beefing over money :cow2:. But I digress.

Part of this is just the birth of wild, entirely new cybernetic organisms, a vision @lkngtn articulated the other day.

Even if honey doesn’t find its value–and I agree the answer, ‘the hive will just make it valuable’ is a bit vague for me–I think we’re witnessing the birth of what replaces the firm. That’s a good show, one you have to participate in to experience, and participating is going to require some HNY.

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Thank you for this insight. This is important. It is the “content” i asked for. I came because of Honeyswap and i can see it is a secondary product only and the core is different. This should be written on any home page of 1hive. I cannot understand it thoroughly, but it makes sense for me now.

Thank you.